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We’ve crafted hundreds of financial plans over the years.

Here are some of the most overlooked opportunities we see during our financial planning meetings.

Not fully understanding different accounts/their roles

  • Employee benefits – Your employer retirement plan is likely one of the best benefits you have access to during your working years. We often see people not fully understanding their plan or not fully utilizing the plan(s). This can also be said about Roth 401(k) options, Flexible Spending Accounts (FSAs) and Health Savings Accounts (HSAs).
  • Tax implications – Your employer 401(k) is a tax-deferred account and is one of a few savings buckets you can utilize for big life goals like buying a second home or retiring. Would it make sense to funnel money into the taxable and/or tax-free buckets? From there, additional tax-planning may revolve around things like tax loss harvesting in the taxable bucket or making Qualified Charitable Contributions (QCDs) from the tax-deferred (IRA) bucket, when appropriate.

Not having a cohesive investment strategy

This is a big one. It’s why investment management is such a big part of our work.

  • Asset allocation – Most often, we find people utilizing an approach that is too aggressive given their stage of life. Occasionally we’ll run into a family that is too conservative. Remember “Goldilocks and the Three Bears?” We’re looking to craft portfolios that aren’t too “hot” or too “cold”, but just right!
  • Poor advice – You’d be amazed how often we run into poor investments because “their neighbor told them it was a good pick” or they’re chasing past performance!
  • Ignoring fees – There are many investments (and advisors) that come with hidden fees. These fees can eat away at returns, and they can be very hard to find!

Some of the fees we look out for include: 12b-1 fees, front-end load, back-end load, annuity fees, etc. We push clients to ask outside advisors: “How do you get paid?” and “What are all of my fees?”

  • Ask the question – When all else fails, it’s always a good idea to ask, “Does this account and its investments fit my long-term goals?”

Not fully understanding when (and how) to retire

  • By far, the most common question we get – “Do I have enough to retire?” It’s understandable and there are a lot of factors to consider. Even those with large amounts of savings are asking this question – they may not have a good handle on how much their household is actually spending.
  • Transitioning from saving to spending – We save, save, save, for so many years. People often struggle with the idea of flipping that switch from saving to spending (and how to do so tax efficiently).

Getting the family on the same page

  • How do I balance retirement savings with helping my children? – Many people struggle with how to balance their own retirement savings/spending with sharing their wealth with children for things like college, cars, weddings, homes, etc.
  • Only one family member knows about the finances – Oftentimes one person in the family handles the money, and that’s okay. But it’s important for multiple family members to be educated and aware of the financial situation, accounts, and planning information. This ensures your legacy wishes are adhered to and that there are no (burdensome) surprises for the survivors after your passing.

Of course, every person and family are different. These are simply some of the more commonly overlooked opportunities we see.

If you work with us, we may have talked about one (or multiple) of these items.

If you haven’t worked with us and you think you may be falling into one of these missed opportunities, reach out to us!

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“What should we have for dinner tonight?”

Do you ever find yourself asking that question? It’s a dilemma that we face regularly, whether we’re cooking for ourselves, our families, or even planning a dinner party for friends.

In this article, we’re talking about cooking and investing. Why? We’ve found that most people are quite passionate about both food and money. Both require a blend of art and science, a touch of creativity, and a lot of planning.

Getting Started: Setting Your Goals

Before cooking can begin, you need to decide what you’re making. Are you in the mood for something quick and easy, or do you want to challenge yourself with a gourmet recipe? Do you have dietary restrictions or specific nutritional goals?

In the financial world, this is equivalent to deciding your goals. What do you hope to accomplish by investing? Are you saving for retirement, building an emergency fund, or aiming for a major purchase like a home? Just like in cooking, where the end goal determines the choice of dish, your investment goals will shape your financial strategy.

Selecting Ingredients: Asset Allocation

Once you’ve decided what you’re making, the next step in the kitchen is to gather the right ingredients in the right amounts. Are you baking a cake, roasting a chicken, or preparing a salad? Each requires a unique set of ingredients and proportions.

In investing, this step is called “asset allocation.” It’s one of the most important decisions an investor can make. Just as you wouldn’t want too much salt in your dish, you need to balance your investments appropriately. What combination of stocks, bonds, and cash makes sense for your situation?

Crafting the Recipe: Portfolio Construction

A recipe is a set of instructions for preparing a meal. It outlines the right ingredients in the right proportions, combined and cooked in a specific way. Similarly, portfolio construction involves selecting investments based on their expected return and risk characteristics and how they interact together.

Imagine you’re making a complex dish. Each ingredient needs to complement the others, creating a harmonious final product. Investments work the same way. A well-constructed portfolio is a blend of different assets that together aim to achieve your financial goals while managing risk.

Our US Stock Recipe: A Balanced Approach

When creating a US stock portfolio, one of Conrad Siegel’s main ingredients would be the S&P 500. This index represents a broad spectrum of large, established companies across various industries.

To add diversity and potential for higher returns, we might add a dash of smaller stocks (Mid Caps and Small Caps) and sprinkle in some Value stocks. Academic and financial market research has shown that there is a long-term premium associated with value and smaller stocks. These additions can enhance the flavor of your portfolio, much like how spices can elevate a dish.

The Influence of Culture: Global Diversification

One of the best parts about cooking is the influence that culture has on what ends up on our plates. Our culinary experiences are enriched by global ingredients, spices, and techniques. Similarly, your portfolio should have global exposure to benefit from opportunities outside your home market.

Our global portfolio follows a similar recipe. We add exposure to smaller stocks and value stocks and sprinkle in emerging markets. This diversification helps manage risk and can offer growth opportunities as different markets may perform well at different times.

The Importance of Fresh Ingredients

Just as fresher ingredients typically result in a better entrée, high-quality investments can enhance your portfolio’s performance. Staying informed about market trends, economic conditions, and company performance can help you make better investment choices.

Conclusion: The Art and Science of Cooking and Investing

Cooking and investing share many parallels. Both require careful planning, thoughtful selection of ingredients, and a balanced approach to achieve the desired outcome. Whether you’re crafting a delicious meal or building a robust portfolio, the right recipe can make all the difference.

So, next time you find yourself asking, “What should we have for dinner tonight?” remember that the principles you apply in the kitchen can also guide you in the financial world.

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The internet is all abuzz about Artificial Intelligence (AI). If you’ve tuned into any news show, website, or podcast in the last few months, chances are you’ve heard a story about AI. The clickbait titles range the gamut from the negative to the positive:

“AI Will Take Your Job!”

“AI: The Future of Healthcare”

“AI Could Be Humanity’s Last Invention”

“How AI is Revolutionizing Education”

This hot topic seems to have captured our collective imagination in a big way. But is AI going to save us or destroy us?

It shouldn’t surprise you to hear that our answer is “neither.” As with most issues the media blows up into larger stories, the answer is somewhere in the middle. No question, AI has some positive applications, and these are surely going to be a game-changer in certain fields. For example, AI-driven medical diagnostics have the potential to catch diseases earlier and more accurately than human doctors. In the realm of climate science, AI can help model and predict changes more precisely, aiding in the fight against global warming.

On the other hand, there are risks involved with AI. Concerns range from job displacement due to automation to ethical issues surrounding surveillance and privacy. High-profile voices in tech, such as Elon Musk and the late Stephen Hawking, have warned about the existential risks AI could pose if not properly managed. But that doesn’t mean it will sound the death knell for humanity.

What about AI and investing? One area where AI has not shown incredible promise is that of picking stocks. Don’t believe us? David Booth, from Dimensional Advisors, asked ChatGPT about investing, and the answer was basically “Do Not Trust ChatGPT.” This highlights a crucial point: while AI can process vast amounts of data and identify patterns that humans might miss, it doesn’t possess the intuitive judgment and foresight that experienced investors bring to the table.

Additionally, the stock market is influenced by a multitude of factors that are often unpredictable and driven by human emotions. AI, despite its advanced algorithms, can’t account for the whims and irrational behaviors of human investors. This is why, despite the potential of AI in many areas, it hasn’t revolutionized stock picking as some might have hoped.

How should we feel about AI and the future? Whatever your feelings are on AI, we believe it’s neither a reason to panic nor a reason to go all-in on an untested technology. There is an old saying in the investment world that the four most dangerous words are “This Time Is Different.” All the hype surrounding AI includes claims along those lines. It usually does not behoove investors to make big bets on the latest trends but rather to stay the course with one’s well-diversified portfolio, incorporating an overall asset allocation that matches their risk tolerance and time horizon.

AI represents a significant technological advancement with the potential to transform many aspects of our lives. Its impact will likely be complex, with both positive and negative elements. As we navigate this new landscape, it is crucial to approach AI with a balanced perspective, recognizing its capabilities while remaining vigilant about its risks. Just as with any other major innovation, the key lies in thoughtful and measured integration rather than succumbing to hype or fear.

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Investing during an election year can be a source of anxiety for many investors. The potential for significant policy changes and the uncertainty surrounding election outcomes often lead to questions about how markets will react and what investors should do to prepare. Understanding historical trends and maintaining a disciplined approach can help alleviate some of these concerns.

Historical Market Performance During Election Years

Historically, markets have demonstrated resilience and even strength during election years. Since 1926, the S&P 500 index has averaged an annual return of just over 10%. Notably, during election years, this average return has been slightly higher at 11.6%. The year following an election also tends to perform well, with an average return of 10.7%. These figures suggest that while elections introduce a degree of uncertainty, markets often continue to perform robustly.

Volatility and Election Outcomes 

Contrary to what might be expected, historical data does not show a significant increase in market volatility during election years. Analyzing the standard deviation of the S&P 500, which measures market volatility, reveals that volatility is actually lower during election years compared to non-election years. The only period where increased volatility is evident is the month following the election. This suggests that while markets do react to election outcomes, the reaction is relatively short-lived.

Political Parties and Market Performance 

A common question is whether the market favors one political party over another. Historical data indicates that there is no clear pattern to suggest that markets perform better under Democratic or Republican presidencies. Various factors, including economic policies, global events, and broader economic conditions, have a more substantial impact on market performance than the political party in power.

Investor Behavior and Market Timing 

One of the most crucial points for investors to remember is the importance of staying invested and avoiding the temptation to time the market based on election outcomes. Trying to move investments in and out of the market in response to political events can be detrimental. Studies have shown that investors who attempt to time the market often end up underperforming due to selling low during downturns and buying high during recoveries.

Focus on Long-Term Goals and Asset Allocation 

Investors should focus on what they can control, such as their asset allocation and risk tolerance. Younger investors with a longer time horizon can afford to take on more risk, while those closer to retirement should consider reducing exposure to volatile assets like stocks. Ensuring a well-diversified portfolio that includes both domestic and international investments can also help mitigate risks. 

Elections undoubtedly introduce a layer of uncertainty into the market, but historical data suggests that maintaining a disciplined, long-term investment strategy is the best approach. By focusing on asset allocation, diversification, and staying invested, investors can navigate the volatility and continue to work towards their financial goals regardless of the political landscape. 

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Whether you’re a working professional who dreams of building a legacy of memories for your children, or a Baby Boomer approaching retirement, eager for a retreat that will draw your friends and family near, the second home trend has its appeal.

A second home looks different for everyone – it may be a house in Ocean City, a cabin set on a lake in Maine, or a peaceful retreat in the countryside. But no matter what it looks like, the big-picture questions are the same: Is it a smart investment? How should it figure into your long-term financial goals and retirement plan? How do you weigh the financial investment with the time and emotional investment?

Here are a few benefits and considerations to keep in mind when evaluating whether investing in a second home is right for you:

Turnkey convenience, tailored to your taste and needs

When you have a second home, you can pick up and go with little to no notice – no reservation required. When you arrive, you’re home – no need to settle in and no chance of being disappointed if your rental doesn’t match the pictures from the online ad. The home is decorated to your specific style and taste, with the amenities that you value and enjoy. Plus, all your vacation clothes, linens and recreational items are in one place and ready for use. Another added benefit is the opportunity to invest in your own equipment – whether it’s camping gear, beach chairs, kayaks, etc. – that you can enjoy year after year.

Immediate return with potential long-term value

At the point of purchase, there is immediate value in the utility of the home. To help offset maintenance and upkeep costs, you can choose to rent out the house. But, keep in mind that managing a rental takes time and resources and that you will need to fit yourself into the rental schedule. In the long-term, the house may serve as a retirement residence. Or, if you monitor the market and sell when conditions are favorable, you can aim to make a profit.

A place to make memories and build your legacy

A second home is more of an emotional investment than traditional investments, such as stocks or bonds. Whether you have a young and growing family or you’re nearing retirement, a second home can serve as a gathering place for family and friends – a place to retreat, discover new hobbies and passions, start traditions and make lifelong memories. Establishing a secondary residence also gives you the opportunity to build new friendships and community outside of your hometown. For many families, the sentimental value attached to a vacation home far exceeds its financial value.

Maintenance and upkeep costs

There are carrying costs associated with a second home, including taxes, insurance, utility bills, and general maintenance. As the owner, you are responsible when something goes wrong – whether it’s a broken window, leaky roof, or liability from an injury on the property. Some homeowners will hire a management company to clean and maintain the grounds, particularly if they plan to rent out the property – however, this additional cost can cut into revenue. Homeowner insurance rates and mortgage financing terms also tend to be higher and more restrictive.

Reduced flexibility to travel and experience new places

Keep in mind that if you’re paying a mortgage and taxes on a second home, you’re probably going to spend most of your vacation time there. To make the most of your investment, you may feel compelled to visit your vacation home as often as possible, foregoing other options. Plus, the associated costs may start to cut into your budget to travel elsewhere. If you like to explore new places and go somewhere different every summer, tying yourself down to one destination might not be the most strategic move.

Financial risk and tax complexities

As with any investment, there is financial risk involved in owning a second home. Real estate is illiquid – there’s no predicting what the economic climate will be in 20-30 years and whether conditions will be favorable to sell. Before you decide to buy a second home, consult with a trusted financial advisor to evaluate your options. A financial planner can conduct an overall cost-benefit analysis and help gauge the impact of the purchase on your long-term financial security and retirement plan. You should also consult with a CPA to evaluate the tax implications, weighing factors such as expected use and revenue from rent.

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For decades behavioral finance was largely an academic pursuit, more recently this body of knowledge has been recognized for its impact on investing. Daniel Kahneman and Richard Thaler have been awarded Nobel Prizes for their contribution to this field of research. What follows is behavioral finance in plain English. Knowing these mental blind spots might make you a better investor.

Legendary economist and investor Benjamin Graham said it best “The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.”

Your own behavioral biases are often the greatest threat to your financial well-being. As investors, we leap before we look. We stay when we should go. We cringe at the very risks that are expected to generate our greatest rewards.

Most of the behavioral biases that influence your investment decisions come from mental shortcuts we depend on to think more efficiently and act more effectively in our busy lives. Usually these short-cuts work well for us. They can be powerful allies when we encounter physical threats, or even when we’re simply trying to stay afloat in the sea of decisions we face every day. These same survival-driven instincts that are otherwise so helpful can turn problematic in investing.

Let’s take a look at these concepts…

Anchoring: Going Down With the Ship. Fixing on earlier references that don’t serve your best interests.
Real life scenario: I paid $11/share for this stock and now it’s only worth $9. I won’t sell it until I’ve broken even.

Confirmation: The “I Thought So” Bias. Seeking news that supports your beliefs and ignoring conflicting evidence.
Real life scenario: After forming initial reactions, we’ll ignore new facts and find false affirmations to justify our chosen course … even if it would be in our best financial interest to consider a change.

Familiarity Breeds Complacency. “Familiar” doesn’t always mean “safer” or “better.”
Real life scenario: By over concentrating in familiar assets, you decrease global diversification and increase your exposure to unnecessary market risks. This is very common when employees own a large stake in their employer’s stock.

Fear: “Get Me Out NOW!”. The panic we feel whenever the markets encounter a rough patch.
Real life scenario: While you may be well-served to run from a dangerous physical situation, doing the same with your investments might lock you into a loss without participating in the recovery.

Greed: Excitement Is an Investor’s Enemy. Fear of missing out, Chasing hot stocks, sectors, or markets, hoping to score larger-than-life returns.
Real life scenario: When you speculate, you can get burned in high-flying markets. Remember to focus on what really counts: managing risks, controlling costs, and sticking to the plan.

Loss Aversion: Avoiding Pain Is Even Better Than a Gain. We are hardwired to despise losing even more than we crave winning.
Real life scenario: We attempt to time the market by selling before it drops. Ultimately, market-timing is more likely to increase costs and decrease expected returns.

Overconfidence: Better Than Average? Everyone believes they’re above average. Clearly, not everyone can be correct.
Real life scenario: Overconfidence makes you believe you’ve got the rare luck or skill required to consistently “beat” the market, instead of patiently participating in its long-term returns. Slow and steady wins the race.

Sunk Cost: Throwing Good Money After Bad. It’s more painful to lose something if you’ve already invested time, energy, or money into it.
Real life scenario: The past is past. Don’t let sunk cost fallacy stop you from unloading an existing holding once it no longer belongs in your portfolio.

Don’t go it alone – your brain has a difficult time “seeing” its own biases. Having an objective advisor dedicated to serving your highest financial interests is among your strongest defense against all of these mental traps.

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So, what’s up with the U.S. debt ceiling? As potential threats loom large, we’re seeing articles in abundance, explaining where we’re at, how we got here, and what to expect next.

We wouldn’t be human if we didn’t share in your frustration over the maddening lack of resolution to date. It’s stressful to watch huge, consequential events unfolding, over which we have no control. And who needs more stress in their life?

Which is why we encourage you to think of your investments as a bright spot of relief in an otherwise unmanageable world. In the face of everything we cannot control, the one place you can call your own shots is within your well-structured, globally diversified investment portfolio. And here’s more good news: As an investor, you don’t really need to know that much about the real-time details of the debt ceiling negotiations. Instead, as with any other breaking news, a healthy degree of arm’s length disinterest will likely serve you best, especially if you might otherwise respond to the current fever pitch of news that’s news because it’s in the news.

To illustrate, let’s consider what we believe to be your most advisable investment strategy under various outcomes. With history as our guide, it is perhaps reasonable to expect today’s political brinksmanship-as-usual will lead to some form of resolution, probably arriving at the last possible moment. Then what? Likely, the “fix” will be partial and imperfect, and the hand-wringing will continue apace over the next challenges inherent in the latest “kick the can” legislation. The talking points might shift, but markets will remain as volatile and unpredictable as ever. In this likely scenario, we would advise …

Staying invested in your carefully constructed, globally diversified investment portfolio, structured for your personal financial goals and risk tolerances.

What if negotiations in Washington fail? What if we experience U.S. credit rating downgrades, debt defaults, and unpaid Social Security benefits (to name a few of the uglier possibilities)? In a worst-case scenario, the U.S. dollar could lose its global currency status, a position it’s held since before most of us were born. What then?

If a worse- or worst-case scenario occurs, our efficient financial markets would once again respond by pricing in the good, bad, and ugly news well before we can successfully trade on it. Global diversification would be as important, if not more critical. Selling in a panic as markets adjust to the worsening news would remain as ill-advised as ever. In other words, your advisable course would remain …

Staying invested in your carefully constructed, globally diversified investment portfolio, structured for your personal financial goals and risk tolerances.

Last, and probably least likely, what if Washington defies our doubts, and achieves a happy and timely debt ceiling resolution, with little to no harm done? Hey, anything is possible. In this best-case scenario, the breaking news would be better than most of us expect, so markets would likely respond at least briefly with better-than-expected returns, rewarding us for staying put. At the same time, just in case the next bit of news were to disappoint, or even be less exciting than expected, we’d want to temper any concentrated market exposures by, you guessed it …

Staying invested in your carefully constructed, globally diversified investment portfolio, structured for your personal financial goals and risk tolerances.

We would be happy to offer more insights and analysis about the debt ceiling if you are interested in learning more. We’re also here to review your portfolio mix any time your personal circumstances may warrant a change. Otherwise, guess what we would advise you to do while the debt crisis continues? If you’re not sure, please give us a call. We always enjoy hearing from you.

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Whether your kids or grandkids are 4, 14, or 24, teaching them about money is one of the most important gifts you can give them. Good money skills last a lifetime. Budgeting, prioritizing savings, living within your means, long-term investing, are all skills that we can teach. Obviously, the application of these skills will differ based on the child’s age, but it is best to start when they are young.

If we teach them our values and principles about money today, they will be well positioned to succeed in the future.

Younger kids tend to live in the moment, with little consideration of the future. Encourage them to save a portion of each cash gift with an eye on the future. Show them how a savings plan can help them obtain a more expensive or treasured item in the future.

For teenagers with a job, help them understand their paycheck. Explain FICA (Federal Insurance Contributions Act is a United States federal payroll contribution directed towards both employees and employers to fund Social Security and Medicare—federal programs that provide benefits for retirees, people with disabilities, and children of deceased workers). To help them get started with savings, offer to make a matching Roth contribution if they are willing to save some of their hard earned pay.

If you thought it was challenging explaining good money habits to teenagers, just wait until they are in college and have everything figured out. They will be out on their own for the first time with little money and lots of spending opportunities. College students are flooded with credit card solicitations. Credit cards can be useful in an emergency or to help build a credit history, but they can easily lead to overspending. This is a good time to discuss credit cards and avoiding high interest debt.

As your young adult starts their career, make sure they prioritize savings from the start. Encourage the establishment of an emergency fund and contributions to a retirement account. Their lifestyle will adjust to their take home pay. As bonuses and pay increase, so should their commitment to savings. Show them how slow and steady savings grows over 40 years.. According to Einstein, “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.”

What should we tell them about investing?… focus on the long-term, stay invested through all market cycles, and own a low-cost diversified portfolio.

We frequently field questions about this topic and have many resources to share. If this involves an adult family member, please feel free to make an introduction to us. If you would like additional advice and guidance, please reach out, we are here to help.

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Who doesn’t enjoy tying up year-end loose ends? The original SECURE Act was signed into law on December 20th 2019. Its “sequel,” the SECURE 2.0 Act, was similarly enacted at year-end on December 29th 2022.

Both pieces of legislation seek to reform how Americans prepare for retirement while juggling current spending needs. How, when, or will each of us retire? How can government incentives, regulations, and safety nets help more people safely do so—or at least not get in the way?

These are questions we’ve been asking as a nation for decades, across shifting socioeconomic climates. Throughout, a hard truth remains:

Employers and the government play a role in helping you save for and spend in retirement, but much of the preparation ultimately falls on you.

That’s America for you. The good news is, you get to call your own shots. The bad news is, you have to. Neither the original SECURE Act nor SECURE 2.0 has fundamentally changed this reality. SECURE 2.0 has, however, added far more motivational carrots than punishing sticks. Its guiding goal is right there in the name: Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE). Following is an overview of its key components.

Note: Implementation for each SECURE 2.0 provision varies from being effective immediately, to ramping up in future years. Many of its newest programs won’t effectively roll out until 2024 or later, giving us time to plan. We’ve noted with each provision when it’s slated to take effect.

Below are a few provisions that may have an impact on your future financial planning:

  • Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) pushed back in 2023 (Age 73 if born between 1951-1959, Age 75 if born in 1960 or after)
  • Elimination of RMDs for Roth accounts within employer-sponsored plans in 2024
  • Employers may deposit matching or profit-sharing contributions to Roth accounts, which would be taxable to employee in year of contribution in 2023
  • High wage earners (wages in excess of $145,000 in previous calendar year) will be required to use Roth account for catch-up contributions in employer-sponsored plans, which would be taxable to employee in year of contribution (beginning 2024)
  • 529-to-Roth IRA transfers – may be able to move unused 529 plan money into Roth IRA –subject to numerous restrictions and limits in 2024
  • Post-death option for surviving spouse beneficiary to delay RMDs until when deceased spouse would have reached RMD age – only applies if younger spouse pre-deceases older spouse in 2024
  • IRA catch-up contribution limit ($1,000) indexed for inflation starting in 2024
  • Increased employer-plan catch-up contributions when in 60’s – catch-up contribution limits will be higher (at least $10,000 and inflation adjusted) for those ages 60, 61, 62, and 63, starting in 2025
  • New QCD rules which start in 2024 include:
  • Maximum annual amount of $100,000 indexed to inflation
  • One-time $50,000 QCD allowed to charitable trust/charitable gift annuity

How else can we help you incorporate SECURE 2.0 Act updates into your personal financial plans? The landscape is filled with rabbit holes down which we did not venture in this article, with caveats and conditions to be explored. And there are a few provisions we didn’t touch on here. As such, before you proceed, we hope you’ll consult with us or others (such as your accountant or estate planning attorney) to discuss the details specific to you.

Come what may in the years ahead, we look forward to serving as your guide through the ever-evolving field of retirement planning. Please don’t hesitate to reach out to us today with your questions and comments.

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There have been so many big events competing for our attention…

Inflation is real, and needs to be managed. Heightened levels of market volatility across stock and bond markets alike may have left you once again wondering whether this time is different. Wider worries prey on our minds as well, such as the war in Ukraine; totalitarian aggression in other hot spots around the world, political discord at home, and natural disasters.

But it’s also important to remember, we’re biased to pay more attention to recent alarms than long-ago news. In the right context, this form of recency bias makes perfect sense. As we go about our lives, it’s often best to prioritize our most immediate concerns.

However, as an investor, if you overemphasize the news that looms the largest, you’re far more likely to damage your investments than do them any favors. You’ll end up chasing hot trends, only to watch them combust or fizzle away. Or you’ll jump out during the downturns, without knowing when to jump back in.

Yesterday’s News
How do we defend against recency bias? It can help to place current events in historical context. Do you remember what investors were worrying about a year, several years, or several decades ago? If you experienced some or all of these events first-hand, you might recall how you felt at the time, before we had today’s hindsight to inform our next steps:

  • 2021: The Taliban takes control in Afghanistan, while a “ragtag army” of online traders led by Roaring Kitty storms Wall Street.
  • 2020: COVID-19 shuts down economies worldwide. Civil unrest rides high across a gamut of socioeconomic concerns, and a divisive U.S. presidential election looms large.
  • 2018: Two U.S. government shutdowns occur—in January and again at year-end, with the latter lasting more than a month.
  • 2017: The year-end Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) upends U.S. tax code.
  • 2016: The Brexit referendum and U.S. presidential election deliver surprising outcomes.
  • 2015: A long-simmering Greek debt crisis erupts.
  • 2013: A 16-day U.S. government shut-down occurs in the fall.
  • 2012: The U.S. narrowly averts plummeting over a fiscal cliff.
  • 2011: For the first time, the U.S. federal government credit rating is downgraded by one of the major rating agencies from AAA to AA+, and the Occupy Wallstreet movement is born.
  • 2008: Wall Street broker and former NASDAQ chair Bernie Madoff is arrested for fraud.
  • 2007: The Great Recession and global financial crisis begins. 2001: The 9/11 terrorist attacks send global markets reeling. An accounting scandal at Enron culminates in the energy giant’s bankruptcy.
  • 1999: The dot-com bubble bursts; the Y2K bug spurs massive, worldwide computer reprogramming.
  • 1990: Iraq invades Kuwait. 1980: U.S. inflation peaks at 14.8%; Americans are marching in the streets over the price of groceries. Also, the U.S. Savings and Loan crisis begins, ultimately costing taxpayers an estimated $124 billion.
  • 1973: An OPEC oil embargo “fueled bedlam in America.”

Investment Mainstays
These are just a few examples. They don’t include the market’s endless stream of lesser alarms that are easy to dismiss in hindsight, but often generated as much real-time storm and fury as the more memorable events.

The point is, there’s always something going on. And even as global markets persist, we forget or rewrite our memories, until they’re no longer available to inform our current resolve.

In the face of today’s challenges and tomorrow’s unknowns, we advise looking past recent trends, and focusing instead on a handful of investment basics that have stood the test of time. They may seem unremarkable compared to the breaking news. But when has “buy low, sell high,” or “a penny saved is a penny earned” become a bad idea once all the excitement is over?

It’s always important to take a step back and reflect. Stay tuned for more in our Investing Basics series!

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