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Whether you’re a working professional who dreams of building a legacy of memories for your children, or a Baby Boomer approaching retirement, eager for a retreat that will draw your friends and family near, the second home trend has its appeal.

A second home looks different for everyone – it may be a house in Ocean City, a cabin set on a lake in Maine, or a peaceful retreat in the countryside. But no matter what it looks like, the big-picture questions are the same: Is it a smart investment? How should it figure into your long-term financial goals and retirement plan? How do you weigh the financial investment with the time and emotional investment?

Here are a few benefits and considerations to keep in mind when evaluating whether investing in a second home is right for you:

Turnkey convenience, tailored to your taste and needs

When you have a second home, you can pick up and go with little to no notice – no reservation required. When you arrive, you’re home – no need to settle in and no chance of being disappointed if your rental doesn’t match the pictures from the online ad. The home is decorated to your specific style and taste, with the amenities that you value and enjoy. Plus, all your vacation clothes, linens and recreational items are in one place and ready for use. Another added benefit is the opportunity to invest in your own equipment – whether it’s camping gear, beach chairs, kayaks, etc. – that you can enjoy year after year.

Immediate return with potential long-term value

At the point of purchase, there is immediate value in the utility of the home. To help offset maintenance and upkeep costs, you can choose to rent out the house. But, keep in mind that managing a rental takes time and resources and that you will need to fit yourself into the rental schedule. In the long-term, the house may serve as a retirement residence. Or, if you monitor the market and sell when conditions are favorable, you can aim to make a profit.

A place to make memories and build your legacy

A second home is more of an emotional investment than traditional investments, such as stocks or bonds. Whether you have a young and growing family or you’re nearing retirement, a second home can serve as a gathering place for family and friends – a place to retreat, discover new hobbies and passions, start traditions and make lifelong memories. Establishing a secondary residence also gives you the opportunity to build new friendships and community outside of your hometown. For many families, the sentimental value attached to a vacation home far exceeds its financial value.

Maintenance and upkeep costs

There are carrying costs associated with a second home, including taxes, insurance, utility bills, and general maintenance. As the owner, you are responsible when something goes wrong – whether it’s a broken window, leaky roof, or liability from an injury on the property. Some homeowners will hire a management company to clean and maintain the grounds, particularly if they plan to rent out the property – however, this additional cost can cut into revenue. Homeowner insurance rates and mortgage financing terms also tend to be higher and more restrictive.

Reduced flexibility to travel and experience new places

Keep in mind that if you’re paying a mortgage and taxes on a second home, you’re probably going to spend most of your vacation time there. To make the most of your investment, you may feel compelled to visit your vacation home as often as possible, foregoing other options. Plus, the associated costs may start to cut into your budget to travel elsewhere. If you like to explore new places and go somewhere different every summer, tying yourself down to one destination might not be the most strategic move.

Financial risk and tax complexities

As with any investment, there is financial risk involved in owning a second home. Real estate is illiquid – there’s no predicting what the economic climate will be in 20-30 years and whether conditions will be favorable to sell. Before you decide to buy a second home, consult with a trusted financial advisor to evaluate your options. A financial planner can conduct an overall cost-benefit analysis and help gauge the impact of the purchase on your long-term financial security and retirement plan. You should also consult with a CPA to evaluate the tax implications, weighing factors such as expected use and revenue from rent.

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For decades behavioral finance was largely an academic pursuit, more recently this body of knowledge has been recognized for its impact on investing. Daniel Kahneman and Richard Thaler have been awarded Nobel Prizes for their contribution to this field of research. What follows is behavioral finance in plain English. Knowing these mental blind spots might make you a better investor.

Legendary economist and investor Benjamin Graham said it best “The investor’s chief problem – and even his worst enemy – is likely to be himself.”

Your own behavioral biases are often the greatest threat to your financial well-being. As investors, we leap before we look. We stay when we should go. We cringe at the very risks that are expected to generate our greatest rewards.

Most of the behavioral biases that influence your investment decisions come from mental shortcuts we depend on to think more efficiently and act more effectively in our busy lives. Usually these short-cuts work well for us. They can be powerful allies when we encounter physical threats, or even when we’re simply trying to stay afloat in the sea of decisions we face every day. These same survival-driven instincts that are otherwise so helpful can turn problematic in investing.

Let’s take a look at these concepts…

Anchoring: Going Down With the Ship. Fixing on earlier references that don’t serve your best interests.
Real life scenario: I paid $11/share for this stock and now it’s only worth $9. I won’t sell it until I’ve broken even.

Confirmation: The “I Thought So” Bias. Seeking news that supports your beliefs and ignoring conflicting evidence.
Real life scenario: After forming initial reactions, we’ll ignore new facts and find false affirmations to justify our chosen course … even if it would be in our best financial interest to consider a change.

Familiarity Breeds Complacency. “Familiar” doesn’t always mean “safer” or “better.”
Real life scenario: By over concentrating in familiar assets, you decrease global diversification and increase your exposure to unnecessary market risks. This is very common when employees own a large stake in their employer’s stock.

Fear: “Get Me Out NOW!”. The panic we feel whenever the markets encounter a rough patch.
Real life scenario: While you may be well-served to run from a dangerous physical situation, doing the same with your investments might lock you into a loss without participating in the recovery.

Greed: Excitement Is an Investor’s Enemy. Fear of missing out, Chasing hot stocks, sectors, or markets, hoping to score larger-than-life returns.
Real life scenario: When you speculate, you can get burned in high-flying markets. Remember to focus on what really counts: managing risks, controlling costs, and sticking to the plan.

Loss Aversion: Avoiding Pain Is Even Better Than a Gain. We are hardwired to despise losing even more than we crave winning.
Real life scenario: We attempt to time the market by selling before it drops. Ultimately, market-timing is more likely to increase costs and decrease expected returns.

Overconfidence: Better Than Average? Everyone believes they’re above average. Clearly, not everyone can be correct.
Real life scenario: Overconfidence makes you believe you’ve got the rare luck or skill required to consistently “beat” the market, instead of patiently participating in its long-term returns. Slow and steady wins the race.

Sunk Cost: Throwing Good Money After Bad. It’s more painful to lose something if you’ve already invested time, energy, or money into it.
Real life scenario: The past is past. Don’t let sunk cost fallacy stop you from unloading an existing holding once it no longer belongs in your portfolio.

Don’t go it alone – your brain has a difficult time “seeing” its own biases. Having an objective advisor dedicated to serving your highest financial interests is among your strongest defense against all of these mental traps.

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So, what’s up with the U.S. debt ceiling? As potential threats loom large, we’re seeing articles in abundance, explaining where we’re at, how we got here, and what to expect next.

We wouldn’t be human if we didn’t share in your frustration over the maddening lack of resolution to date. It’s stressful to watch huge, consequential events unfolding, over which we have no control. And who needs more stress in their life?

Which is why we encourage you to think of your investments as a bright spot of relief in an otherwise unmanageable world. In the face of everything we cannot control, the one place you can call your own shots is within your well-structured, globally diversified investment portfolio. And here’s more good news: As an investor, you don’t really need to know that much about the real-time details of the debt ceiling negotiations. Instead, as with any other breaking news, a healthy degree of arm’s length disinterest will likely serve you best, especially if you might otherwise respond to the current fever pitch of news that’s news because it’s in the news.

To illustrate, let’s consider what we believe to be your most advisable investment strategy under various outcomes. With history as our guide, it is perhaps reasonable to expect today’s political brinksmanship-as-usual will lead to some form of resolution, probably arriving at the last possible moment. Then what? Likely, the “fix” will be partial and imperfect, and the hand-wringing will continue apace over the next challenges inherent in the latest “kick the can” legislation. The talking points might shift, but markets will remain as volatile and unpredictable as ever. In this likely scenario, we would advise …

Staying invested in your carefully constructed, globally diversified investment portfolio, structured for your personal financial goals and risk tolerances.

What if negotiations in Washington fail? What if we experience U.S. credit rating downgrades, debt defaults, and unpaid Social Security benefits (to name a few of the uglier possibilities)? In a worst-case scenario, the U.S. dollar could lose its global currency status, a position it’s held since before most of us were born. What then?

If a worse- or worst-case scenario occurs, our efficient financial markets would once again respond by pricing in the good, bad, and ugly news well before we can successfully trade on it. Global diversification would be as important, if not more critical. Selling in a panic as markets adjust to the worsening news would remain as ill-advised as ever. In other words, your advisable course would remain …

Staying invested in your carefully constructed, globally diversified investment portfolio, structured for your personal financial goals and risk tolerances.

Last, and probably least likely, what if Washington defies our doubts, and achieves a happy and timely debt ceiling resolution, with little to no harm done? Hey, anything is possible. In this best-case scenario, the breaking news would be better than most of us expect, so markets would likely respond at least briefly with better-than-expected returns, rewarding us for staying put. At the same time, just in case the next bit of news were to disappoint, or even be less exciting than expected, we’d want to temper any concentrated market exposures by, you guessed it …

Staying invested in your carefully constructed, globally diversified investment portfolio, structured for your personal financial goals and risk tolerances.

We would be happy to offer more insights and analysis about the debt ceiling if you are interested in learning more. We’re also here to review your portfolio mix any time your personal circumstances may warrant a change. Otherwise, guess what we would advise you to do while the debt crisis continues? If you’re not sure, please give us a call. We always enjoy hearing from you.

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Whether your kids or grandkids are 4, 14, or 24, teaching them about money is one of the most important gifts you can give them. Good money skills last a lifetime. Budgeting, prioritizing savings, living within your means, long-term investing, are all skills that we can teach. Obviously, the application of these skills will differ based on the child’s age, but it is best to start when they are young.

If we teach them our values and principles about money today, they will be well positioned to succeed in the future.

Younger kids tend to live in the moment, with little consideration of the future. Encourage them to save a portion of each cash gift with an eye on the future. Show them how a savings plan can help them obtain a more expensive or treasured item in the future.

For teenagers with a job, help them understand their paycheck. Explain FICA (Federal Insurance Contributions Act is a United States federal payroll contribution directed towards both employees and employers to fund Social Security and Medicare—federal programs that provide benefits for retirees, people with disabilities, and children of deceased workers). To help them get started with savings, offer to make a matching Roth contribution if they are willing to save some of their hard earned pay.

If you thought it was challenging explaining good money habits to teenagers, just wait until they are in college and have everything figured out. They will be out on their own for the first time with little money and lots of spending opportunities. College students are flooded with credit card solicitations. Credit cards can be useful in an emergency or to help build a credit history, but they can easily lead to overspending. This is a good time to discuss credit cards and avoiding high interest debt.

As your young adult starts their career, make sure they prioritize savings from the start. Encourage the establishment of an emergency fund and contributions to a retirement account. Their lifestyle will adjust to their take home pay. As bonuses and pay increase, so should their commitment to savings. Show them how slow and steady savings grows over 40 years.. According to Einstein, “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it … he who doesn’t … pays it.”

What should we tell them about investing?… focus on the long-term, stay invested through all market cycles, and own a low-cost diversified portfolio.

We frequently field questions about this topic and have many resources to share. If this involves an adult family member, please feel free to make an introduction to us. If you would like additional advice and guidance, please reach out, we are here to help.

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Who doesn’t enjoy tying up year-end loose ends? The original SECURE Act was signed into law on December 20th 2019. Its “sequel,” the SECURE 2.0 Act, was similarly enacted at year-end on December 29th 2022.

Both pieces of legislation seek to reform how Americans prepare for retirement while juggling current spending needs. How, when, or will each of us retire? How can government incentives, regulations, and safety nets help more people safely do so—or at least not get in the way?

These are questions we’ve been asking as a nation for decades, across shifting socioeconomic climates. Throughout, a hard truth remains:

Employers and the government play a role in helping you save for and spend in retirement, but much of the preparation ultimately falls on you.

That’s America for you. The good news is, you get to call your own shots. The bad news is, you have to. Neither the original SECURE Act nor SECURE 2.0 has fundamentally changed this reality. SECURE 2.0 has, however, added far more motivational carrots than punishing sticks. Its guiding goal is right there in the name: Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE). Following is an overview of its key components.

Note: Implementation for each SECURE 2.0 provision varies from being effective immediately, to ramping up in future years. Many of its newest programs won’t effectively roll out until 2024 or later, giving us time to plan. We’ve noted with each provision when it’s slated to take effect.

Below are a few provisions that may have an impact on your future financial planning:

  • Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) pushed back in 2023 (Age 73 if born between 1951-1959, Age 75 if born in 1960 or after)
  • Elimination of RMDs for Roth accounts within employer-sponsored plans in 2024
  • Employers may deposit matching or profit-sharing contributions to Roth accounts, which would be taxable to employee in year of contribution in 2023
  • High wage earners (wages in excess of $145,000 in previous calendar year) will be required to use Roth account for catch-up contributions in employer-sponsored plans, which would be taxable to employee in year of contribution (beginning 2024)
  • 529-to-Roth IRA transfers – may be able to move unused 529 plan money into Roth IRA –subject to numerous restrictions and limits in 2024
  • Post-death option for surviving spouse beneficiary to delay RMDs until when deceased spouse would have reached RMD age – only applies if younger spouse pre-deceases older spouse in 2024
  • IRA catch-up contribution limit ($1,000) indexed for inflation starting in 2024
  • Increased employer-plan catch-up contributions when in 60’s – catch-up contribution limits will be higher (at least $10,000 and inflation adjusted) for those ages 60, 61, 62, and 63, starting in 2025
  • New QCD rules which start in 2024 include:
  • Maximum annual amount of $100,000 indexed to inflation
  • One-time $50,000 QCD allowed to charitable trust/charitable gift annuity

How else can we help you incorporate SECURE 2.0 Act updates into your personal financial plans? The landscape is filled with rabbit holes down which we did not venture in this article, with caveats and conditions to be explored. And there are a few provisions we didn’t touch on here. As such, before you proceed, we hope you’ll consult with us or others (such as your accountant or estate planning attorney) to discuss the details specific to you.

Come what may in the years ahead, we look forward to serving as your guide through the ever-evolving field of retirement planning. Please don’t hesitate to reach out to us today with your questions and comments.

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There have been so many big events competing for our attention…

Inflation is real, and needs to be managed. Heightened levels of market volatility across stock and bond markets alike may have left you once again wondering whether this time is different. Wider worries prey on our minds as well, such as the war in Ukraine; totalitarian aggression in other hot spots around the world, political discord at home, and natural disasters.

But it’s also important to remember, we’re biased to pay more attention to recent alarms than long-ago news. In the right context, this form of recency bias makes perfect sense. As we go about our lives, it’s often best to prioritize our most immediate concerns.

However, as an investor, if you overemphasize the news that looms the largest, you’re far more likely to damage your investments than do them any favors. You’ll end up chasing hot trends, only to watch them combust or fizzle away. Or you’ll jump out during the downturns, without knowing when to jump back in.

Yesterday’s News
How do we defend against recency bias? It can help to place current events in historical context. Do you remember what investors were worrying about a year, several years, or several decades ago? If you experienced some or all of these events first-hand, you might recall how you felt at the time, before we had today’s hindsight to inform our next steps:

  • 2021: The Taliban takes control in Afghanistan, while a “ragtag army” of online traders led by Roaring Kitty storms Wall Street.
  • 2020: COVID-19 shuts down economies worldwide. Civil unrest rides high across a gamut of socioeconomic concerns, and a divisive U.S. presidential election looms large.
  • 2018: Two U.S. government shutdowns occur—in January and again at year-end, with the latter lasting more than a month.
  • 2017: The year-end Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) upends U.S. tax code.
  • 2016: The Brexit referendum and U.S. presidential election deliver surprising outcomes.
  • 2015: A long-simmering Greek debt crisis erupts.
  • 2013: A 16-day U.S. government shut-down occurs in the fall.
  • 2012: The U.S. narrowly averts plummeting over a fiscal cliff.
  • 2011: For the first time, the U.S. federal government credit rating is downgraded by one of the major rating agencies from AAA to AA+, and the Occupy Wallstreet movement is born.
  • 2008: Wall Street broker and former NASDAQ chair Bernie Madoff is arrested for fraud.
  • 2007: The Great Recession and global financial crisis begins. 2001: The 9/11 terrorist attacks send global markets reeling. An accounting scandal at Enron culminates in the energy giant’s bankruptcy.
  • 1999: The dot-com bubble bursts; the Y2K bug spurs massive, worldwide computer reprogramming.
  • 1990: Iraq invades Kuwait. 1980: U.S. inflation peaks at 14.8%; Americans are marching in the streets over the price of groceries. Also, the U.S. Savings and Loan crisis begins, ultimately costing taxpayers an estimated $124 billion.
  • 1973: An OPEC oil embargo “fueled bedlam in America.”

Investment Mainstays
These are just a few examples. They don’t include the market’s endless stream of lesser alarms that are easy to dismiss in hindsight, but often generated as much real-time storm and fury as the more memorable events.

The point is, there’s always something going on. And even as global markets persist, we forget or rewrite our memories, until they’re no longer available to inform our current resolve.

In the face of today’s challenges and tomorrow’s unknowns, we advise looking past recent trends, and focusing instead on a handful of investment basics that have stood the test of time. They may seem unremarkable compared to the breaking news. But when has “buy low, sell high,” or “a penny saved is a penny earned” become a bad idea once all the excitement is over?

It’s always important to take a step back and reflect. Stay tuned for more in our Investing Basics series!

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Over the years, during times of market turbulence, you have heard us say “stay the course” or “don’t make short-term trades with long-term money”. Following a disappointing first half of the year and a particularly brutal June, markets sharply reversed course in July. Proving yet again that timing the market is nearly impossible. Underperforming asset classes often surge surprisingly, just when we’re most convinced they never will. Broad U.S. stock indexes ended July with their best monthly returns since 2020—up over 9% for the S&P 500, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 12%.

Market Pricing: Compared to What?
Why the dramatic turnabout this July, even as national and global headlines remain relatively bleak? Efficient market theory would suggest, it’s not whether the news is good or bad, but whether it’s better or worse than what we’ve been collectively bracing for. As The Wall Street Journal senior columnist James Mackintosh wrote:

“The drumbeat of gloom this year drove down prices, but also meant that even-worse news was required to drive them down more. When everything looks grim, the slightest break in the clouds looks like a new day.”

Of course, even as the financial press announced the strong monthly returns, there have been plenty of pundits pointing out how fleeting any “recovery” might be. After all, most of the same challenges we’ve been facing all year remain alive and unwell, which makes it easy for forecasters to convincingly call for copious doom and gloom ahead.

They may even be correct. But once again, we caution against betting on it either way.

What Does the Data Say?
If expert forecasts were useful, we should see evidence that trading on them can improve your portfolio returns. Instead, a recent analysis by Morningstar’s John Rekenthaler reinforces existing data suggesting just the opposite is true.

Rekenthaler compared returns across five asset allocation fund categories for the 10 years ending December 2021. Four of the five fund categories were strategic stock/bond funds with a static equity exposure of between 15% to 85%. So, for example, funds with 85% equity exposure kept their 85% exposure across the entire decade, and so on.

The fifth fund category was for tactical asset allocation funds with the freedom to shape-shift their equity exposure in response to market news. “Tactical investing” is a fancy name for market-timing.

If anyone could stage a successful market-timing campaign, it should be professional fund managers and their legions of high-end market analysts. Instead, for the decade ending 2021, the tactical fund category did outperform asset allocation funds that were mostly invested in fixed income (with lower-expected returns). But they significantly underperformed fund categories mostly invested in equities.

Tactical funds also had a nasty habit of disappearing entirely, which probably prevented their worst returns from even showing up in the results (even though real people lost real money in them). Survivorship rates among strategic funds were between 66%–74%, whereas the tactical funds only survived about 53% of the time.

Rekenthaler also looked at whether investors could have done well by identifying the few “winning” tactical funds ahead of time. He demonstrated that the funds’ relative rankings were so random from one year to the next, there was no way to do that. If anything, past outperformance suggested slightly worse returns moving forward.

Stranger Things
So, are we predicting a happily-ever-after for 2022? Hardly. Then again, you never know; stranger things have happened.

Instead, because we don’t know, we diversify. And we wait. Markets have been rewarding patient and disciplined investors through the decades, we intend to continue doing the same. Let us know if we can help you manage an investment portfolio ideally structured to sustain you, your family, and your wealth through the perpetual uncertainty that lies ahead.

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There’s been a lot of talk about recessions lately: Whether one is near, far, or perhaps already here. Whether we can or should try to avoid it. What it even means to be in a recession, and how it’s related to current market turmoil.

To put market and recessionary concerns in perspective, it might help to describe six ways a recession resembles a bad mood. There are some intriguing similarities!

  1. 1. There Is No Precise Definition.
  2. We all know what a bad mood feels like. But there is no clear definition for a nebulous mix of real and perceived setbacks, and how they’re going to affect us.

Likewise, there is no single measure to tell us exactly when a recession is underway or when it’s over. Instead, recessions can trigger, and/or be triggered by a number of interconnected economic signals. These usually include a declining Gross Domestic Product (GDP), along with rising unemployment, sinking consumer confidence, gloomy retail forecasts, disappointing corporate balance sheets, a bond yield curve inversion, stock market declines, and similar combinations of objective and subjective events.

In the U.S., the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) defines a recession as follows (emphasis ours):

“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts for more than a few months.”

Rather vague, isn’t it? That’s intentionally done. Similarly, the World Bank Group has stated, “Despite the interest in global recessions, the term does not have a widely accepted definition.”

2. You Usually Can’t Spot One Except in Hindsight.

How do you know when you’re in a bad mood? Often, you don’t, until you’re looking back at it.

Recessions are similar. Since a widespread downturn must linger for a while before it even qualifies as a recession, the NBER only declares one after it’s underway. For example, in July 2020, the NBER announced we’d been in a recession for two months between February April 2020. This was triggered, of course, by the abrupt arrival of the global pandemic. It was the shortest U.S. recession to date, and already over by the time we officially acknowledged it.

3. Sometimes, We Get Stuck for a While.

Hopefully, your bad moods come and go, resulting in more good times than bad. But sometimes, one misfortune feeds another until you feel gridlocked. It may take a while before improved conditions, a more upbeat attitude, or a blend of both help you move forward.

Similarly, recessions can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. As Nobel Laureate and Yale economist Robert Shiller describes, “The fear can lead to the actuality,” in which economic conditions might feed inflation, which inverts the bond yield curve, which signals a recession, which shakes corporate and consumer confidence, which leads to unfortunate reactions that further aggravate the challenges. And so on. When this occurs, a recession and its related financial fallout may last longer than the underlying economics alone might suggest.

4. They’re Inevitable.

It’s never fun to be in a bad mood, but we can all agree they’re part of life. It would be unhealthy, exhausting even, if we were endlessly giddy every minute of every day.

Similarly, nobody celebrates a recession. But it helps to recognize they aren’t aberrations; they are part of natural economic cycles. Recessions can sometimes help rein in runaway spending, earning, and pricing for companies, consumers, and creditors alike.

For example, in our current climate, we may enter into a recession (or already be in one) as a byproduct of the interest rate increases, aimed at warding off rising inflation, amidst the backdrop of lingering supply side issues and global economic sanctions against Russia. If we can avoid a recession, all the better. But if it’s going to take a modest one to reduce inflation, it may be the preferred, if challenging choice at this time.

5. Experience Helps.

When we’re youngsters, we have little perspective to help us realize we won’t be miserable forever just because we’re unhappy in the moment. As we mature, we learn to temper our moods, and seek support if we do get stuck in a rut.

The same can be said about recessions, and similar challenges. It’s been more than a decade since the Great Recession; and more than 40 years since the U.S. last experienced steep inflation. As such, many investors have had little first-hand experience managing such turbulent times.

It may help to acknowledge we’ve been here before. The U.S. has endured nearly three dozen distinct recessions dating back to the 1850s, with an average length of 17 months. Some were considerably longer. Every recession eventually ends, with economies and markets thriving thereafter. Dimensional Fund Advisors research team shows us, one-, three- and five-year average cumulative returns after significant U.S. stock market declines dating back to July 1926 have all been positive, rewarding investors who placed their faith in future expected returns. Since markets are ultimately driven by the underlying growth in global commerce, we can expect similar aggregate performance moving forward in domestic and international markets alike. Consider these words of wisdom from one of the most experienced investors of all, Warren Buffett,:

“Periodic setbacks will occur, yes, but investors and business managers are in a game that is heavily stacked in their favor. … Since the basic game is so favorable, I believe it’s a terrible mistake to try to dance in and out of it based upon the ebb and flow of business activity. The risks of being out of the game are huge compared to the risks of being in it.”

6. You Can’t Change Others, But You Can Change Yourself.

When you’re in a funk, it doesn’t matter whether it’s due to one or many unfortunate events, or “just because.” There’s ultimately only one person who can change your mood: yourself.

The same is true for your response to recessions, bear markets, and other external events standing between you and your financial wellbeing. Life is filled with causes and effects over which we have no control, especially with respect to our investments. And yet, there are many small, but mighty acts we can take to contribute to the positive outcomes we wish to see in our homes, our nation, and the world And, we can invest wisely. This means taking charge of your personal wealth by focusing on the drivers you can control, and ignoring the greater forces you can’t. For example:

  • We can’t avoid recessions. But we can channel our inner Warren Buffett to look past today’s risks, and retain an appropriate amount of market exposure in pursuit of our long-term financial goals.
  • We can’t avoid bear markets. But we can avoid generating unnecessary losses by panicking and selling low.
  • We can’t avoid inflation. But we can establish a thoughtful budget to track our income and spending, with a plan in place for making adjustments as warranted.

As always, we’re here to help. How can we be of service to you and your family? Don’t hesitate to be in touch.

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For investors, it can be easy to feel overwhelmed by the relentless stream of news about markets. Even if you are an experienced investor, you can hardly be blamed for feeling fear, when you are hearing the constant drumbeat of data and headlines that are designed to evoke an emotional response in you. The year 2022 has been a challenging one, whether you’re invested in bonds or global stocks. This article focuses on 9 considerations to help you navigate today’s volatile markets.

  1. 1. Don’t panic (or pretend not to). It’s easy to believe you’re immune from panic when the financial sun is shining, but it’s hard to avoid succumbing to it during a crisis. If you’re entertaining excuses to bail out during a steep or sustained market downturn, remember: It’s highly likely your emotions are doing the talking. Even if you only pretend to be calm, that’s fine, as long as it prevents you from acting on your fears.

“We’d never buy a shirt for full price then be O.K. returning it in exchange for the sale price. ‘Scary’ markets convince people this unequal exchange makes sense.” – Carl Richards, Behavior Gap

2. Redirect your energy. No matter how logical it may be to sit on your hands during market downturns, your “fight or flight” instincts can trick you into acting anyway. Fortunately, there are productive moves you \ can make instead – such as the nine actions laid out here – to satisfy the itch to act without overhauling your investments at potentially the worst possible time.

“My advice to a prospective active do-it-yourself investor is to learn to golf. You’ll get a little exercise, some fresh air and time with your friends. Sure, green fees can be steep, but not as steep as the hit your portfolio will take if you become an active do-it-yourself investor.” – Terrance Odean, behavioral finance professor

3. Remember the evidence. One way to ignore your self-doubts during market crises is to heed what decades of practical and academic evidence have taught us about investing: Capital markets’ long-term trajectories have been upward. Thus, if you sell when markets are down, you’re far more likely to lock in permanent losses than come out ahead.

“Do the math. Expect catastrophes. Whatever happens, stay the course.” – William Bernstein, MD, PhD, financial theorist and neurologist

4. Manage your exposure to breaking news. There’s a difference between following current events versus fixating on them. In today’s multitasking, multimedia world, it’s easier than ever to be inundated by late-breaking news. When you become mired in the minutiae, it’s hard to retain your long-term perspective.

“Choosing what to ignore – turning off constant market updates, tuning out pundits purveying the latest Armageddon – is critical to maintaining a long-term focus.” – Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal

5. Revisit your carefully crafted investment plans (or make some). Even if you yearn to “follow your gut” during a financial crisis, remember: You promised yourself you wouldn’t do that. When did you promise? When you planned your personalized investment portfolio, carefully allocated to various sources of expected returns, globally diversified to dampen the risks involved, and sensibly executed with low-cost funds managed with a long-term perspective. What if you’ve not yet made these sorts of plans or established this kind of portfolio? Then these are actions we encourage you to take now.

“Thus, the prudent strategy for investors is to act like a postage stamp. The lowly postage stamp does only one thing, but it does it exceedingly well – it adheres to its letter until it reaches its destination. Similarly, investors should adhere to their investment plan – asset allocation.” – Larry Swedroe, financial author

6. Reconsider your risk tolerance (but don’t act on it just yet). When you craft a personalized investment portfolio, you also commit to accepting a measure of market risk in exchange for those expected market returns. Unfortunately, during quiet times, it’s easy to overestimate how much risk you can stomach. If you discover you’re miserable during even modest market declines, you may need to re-think your investment plans. Start planning for prudent portfolio adjustments, preferably working with an objective advisor to help you implement them judiciously over time.

“Our aversion to leverage has dampened our returns over the years. But Charlie [Munger] and I sleep well. Both of us believe it is insane to risk what you have and need in order to obtain what you don’t need.” – Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway

7. Double down on your risk exposure – if you’re able. If, on the other hand, you’ve got nerves of steel, market downturns can be opportunities to buy more of the depressed (low-price) holdings that fit into your investment plans. You can do this with new money, or by rebalancing what you’ve got (selling appreciated assets to buy the underdogs). This is not for the timid. You’re buying holdings other investors are selling. But if can do this and hold tight, you’re especially well-positioned to make the most of the expected recovery.

“Pick your risk exposure, and then diversify like crazy” – Eugene Fama, Nobel laureate economist

8. Tax-loss harvest. Depending on market conditions and your own circumstances, you may be able to use tax-loss harvesting during market downturns. A successful tax-loss harvest lowers your tax bill without substantially altering or impacting your long-term investment outcomes. This action is not without its tricks and traps, however, so it’s best done with help from a financial professional who is well-versed in navigating the challenges involved.

“In investing, you get what you don’t pay for.” – John C. Bogle, Vanguard founder

9. Talk to us. We didn’t know when. We still don’t know how severe it will be, or how long it will last. But we do know markets inevitably tank now and then; we also fully expect they’ll eventually recover and continue upward. Since there’s never a bad time to receive good advice, we hope you’ll be in touch if we can help.

“In the old legend the wise men finally boiled down the history of mortal affairs into the single phrase, ‘This too will pass.’” – Benjamin Graham, economist, “father of value investing”

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In recent columns we have explored interest rates, and inflation – now we come to the heart of the matter: When interest rates, inflation, or both are on the rise, what’s an investor to do?

Let’s start with the big picture. We remain committed to the same core principles we use to help people invest across time and through various market conditions. These include:

  • Building and maintaining personalized investment portfolios of stocks, bonds, and cash
  • Minimizing exposure to concentrated investment risks through global diversification
  • Low cost, tax efficient investments
  • Long-term focus

If anything, adhering to these timeless tenets becomes even more important during periods of increased economic stress, market volatility, and geopolitical uncertainty.

Future Uncertainty
With so much going on, there’s been no lack of analyses of what to expect across various markets, and what investment actions you should take based on these forecasts.

The trouble is, it’s as difficult as ever to predict the future. No one can accurately predict exactly how Putin’s war is going to play out or the future level of inflation – let alone how these factors will converge with myriad others to drive future market pricing.

Moreover, the media plays an outsized role in the content that is published, and it often targets human emotion. Investors who are tempted to act on these media messages should remember the media is selling entertainment, not real financial advice. “People who generate better sound bites generate better media ratings, and that is what gets people promoted in the media business” (Wharton Professor Phil Tetlock). News from the front lines may seem tremendous or trivial, awful or inspiring, or even everything at once. But avoid letting any of it heavily influence your investment portfolio; the world is just too complex for that.

Layers of Protection
Over the years, we hope we’ve communicated what NOT to do in response to current events: Across stock and bond assets alike, it remains as ill-advised as ever to chase or flee individual positions, markets, or economic cycles.

If your investment portfolio is already well-structured, you should be well-positioned to capture appropriate measures of expected investment performance over time, while defending against inflation and other risk/reward tradeoffs. It may not feel like it right now, while we’re enduring the rising risks. And unfortunately, even a best-laid plan doesn’t guarantee success. But if you weigh the odds, your best course by far is probably the one you’re already following.

Outperforming Inflation
In order to meet your longer-term financial goals, a portion of your portfolio will need to outperform inflation over the long haul. Dimensional Funds research team members Wei Dai, PhD and Mamdouh Medhat, PhD recently concluded that “simply staying invested helps outpace inflation over the long term for a wide range of asset classes.” The analysis covered 1927 to 2020, and considered a total of 23 US assets spanning bonds, stocks, industries, and equity premiums. Over this period, inflation averaged 5.5% per year in the study’s high-inflation years. While average real returns were mostly lower in years with high inflation compared to years with low inflation, all assets, except one-month T-bills had positive average real returns in high-inflation years. “Overall, outpacing inflation over the long term has been the rule rather than the exception among the assets in the study.”

  • Stocks: Equities in general, and especially stock factors such as the value premium, have handily outpaced inflation over time.
  • Bonds: Investing in bonds that offer the highest yield for the least amount of term, credit, and call risk is also expected to help a portfolio stay ahead of inflation over time.

Additional defenses against inflation can include: (1) using relatively realistic inflation estimates in your financial and retirement planning; and (2) delaying taking Social Security when possible, to maximize the power of the COLA (cost of living adjustments) on higher monthly payments.

United We Stand
This brings us to an end on our three-part series on inflation, interest rates, and your investments. We included a lot of information during that time, so please think of these columns as more of a conversation starter than a comprehensive guide. Most important, the decisions you make moving forward should be grounded in your own circumstances rather than general rules of thumb. For that, the best way to move forward is together. Please be in touch if we can assist.

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